The Business of War: What happens next in Ukraine will echo across the business world.

It sounds callous to even consider at such a juncture, how global business has been and will be affected by the war in Ukraine. However, it is part of the dynamic now in play, and what happens from here on out will trickle down to every business that has a foot in the global chain. That includes your business of every size, whether it’s travel services, food services, IT services or any industry that relies on more than the coroner store.

You have already been affected, and likely, may not even be aware of the ripples.

The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has already sent shock waves through global markets, disrupting supply chains and altering trade dynamics. Should Russia succeed in keeping the land they have already stolen, or even one day annexing Ukraine back into a semblance of the Soviet Union plotted by Vladimir Putin, the ramifications for international business, and eventually your small business, could be devastating, profound, and far-reaching.

Historical Context: The Challenges of Doing Business with Russia

Historically, engaging in commerce with Russia has presented numerous challenges. The nation's complex regulatory environment, coupled with a legal system often perceived as opaque, has deterred foreign investment. Corruption and bureaucratic red tape have further complicated business operations, leading to increased costs and uncertainties. A successful ownership of Ukraine lands could embolden Russia, potentially intensifying these issues. With control over additional resources and territories, Russia might adopt a more assertive stance in negotiations, leveraging its expanded assets to dictate terms more favorable to its interests.

Impact on Ukrainian Exports and Global Supply Chains

Ukraine has long been a significant player in global agriculture, particularly in the export of wheat and sunflower oil. Prior to the conflict, Ukraine and Russia together accounted for over a third of global wheat exports and more than half of the world's sunflower oil supply. The war has severely disrupted these exports; in the initial months following the invasion, Ukrainian exports plummeted by over 90%. Although there was a partial recovery from June 2022 onward, export volumes remained substantially lower than pre-war levels.

If Russia were allowed to keep the stolen Ukrainian lands, which at this juncture is the favored position of US President Donald Trump, it would maintain control over some critical agricultural outputs. Even if Russia is unable to steal or be granted more land in Ukraine, doing business with the Russians and their leverage will be difficult. This newfound control could be used as leverage in international trade, allowing Russia to influence global food prices and supply chains. Countries dependent on Ukrainian agricultural products might find themselves at the mercy of Russian policies, potentially leading to increased prices and food insecurity in vulnerable regions.

Shifts in Global Trade Dynamics

The annexation could prompt a reevaluation of global trade relationships. Businesses and nations may seek to reduce reliance on Russian-controlled resources, leading to a diversification of supply sources. This shift could result in the restructuring of supply chains, increased production costs, and the exploration of alternative markets. However, such transitions are neither swift nor seamless, and the interim period could be marked by volatility in commodity prices and trade flows.

Potential Positive Outcomes of Conflict Resolution

In the event that hostilities cease and Russia retains control over annexed Ukrainian territories, some argue there could be a semblance of stability that might benefit global markets. A definitive resolution could reduce uncertainty, allowing businesses to plan and operate with greater confidence. Moreover, if Russia invests in the development of these regions, it could lead to increased production of agricultural and mineral resources, potentially stabilizing global supply to some extent.

However, these potential positives are overshadowed by significant concerns. The legitimacy of such an annexation would be widely contested, leading to prolonged geopolitical tensions and the possibility of sustained sanctions against Russia. These factors could negate any economic benefits derived from increased resource control, as continued isolation from major markets would impede Russia's ability to engage in international trade effectively.

Human Capital and Workforce Challenges

The human toll of the conflict cannot be overstated. The war has resulted in significant loss of life and displacement, severely impacting Ukraine's workforce. The destruction of infrastructure and communities has led to a brain drain, with skilled workers fleeing the region in search of safety and stability. Rebuilding this human capital is a daunting task that could take years, if not decades. The loss of a skilled workforce hampers economic recovery and diminishes the country's productive capacity, further complicating any potential reintegration into global markets.

Controversial Business Practices and Ethical Concerns

Reports have emerged suggesting that figures like Donald Trump have expressed interest in Ukraine's mineral resources, with some characterizing these overtures as opportunistic and akin to blackmail. Such approaches raise ethical questions about the exploitation of a nation in turmoil and highlight the complexities of engaging in business ventures in conflict zones. These actions could set a dangerous precedent, where economic interests are pursued at the expense of sovereignty and human rights.

Implications for Global Markets Based on Territorial Control

The ultimate resolution of territorial control in Ukraine will have significant implications for global markets:

If Ukraine Retains Its Territories: A restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity could lead to the gradual resumption of its role as a key exporter of agricultural products. This outcome would likely stabilize global food supplies and prices over time. International support for rebuilding efforts could accelerate economic recovery, fostering a more resilient and diversified global supply chain.


If Russia Maintains Control Over Annexed Regions: Prolonged geopolitical tensions and sustained sanctions against Russia would likely persist. Global businesses might face increased risks and uncertainties when dealing with Russian-controlled territories. The potential for Russia to weaponize its control over critical resources could lead to further market volatility and compel nations to seek alternative suppliers, disrupting existing trade relationships.


In conclusion, the prospect of a Russian annexation of Ukraine presents a complex array of challenges for global business. While some argue that a resolution could bring stability, the broader implications of such an outcome suggest increased geopolitical tensions, ethical dilemmas, and significant disruptions to global trade and economic stability. The international community must carefully consider these factors when formulating responses to the evolving situation.

What happens in those high level boardrooms of government will impact not merely Europe, but the world. In the end, it comes down to what those in a position to make decisions allow Vladimir Putin and his murderous regime to get away with.

Read more of Ed Berliner's commentaries on the email newsletters "Shakedown Street" and "The Business Beagle", both of which can be subscribed to here on his website. Contact Ed to be a guest speaker and lecturer at your event, choosing from the myriad of topics he writes about.